Nearly everything that happens in life can be studied as a probability problem.
Opportunities to study probability surround us. From weather and traffic, to sports, games and economics, nearly everything can be studied using probability. Similarly, nearly anything can be made into a probability exercise. These are a few examples of probability games that high-school students can play.
Carnival Game
Ask students to create their own carnival game. As part of the game's design, students should calculate the probability of people winning their game and adjust the probability factors to ensure the game would be profitable for the carnival. When practical, students can test each other's carnival games to check the probability calculations and determine if real-life experiences match the estimates. What factors can be adjusted and how this is done will depend largely on the game type. For example, games involving tossed balls or targets can be adjusted by changing the range, the target sizes or the balls' weight. Games of chance where, for example, players pull a duck from a pool, can be adjusted by increasing the number of ducks in the pool or decreasing the number of winners. Profitability can be adjusted by increasing the cost to play or decreasing the value of prizes.
Deal or No Deal
In this variation of TV's game show -- recommended by McAllen, Texas, teacher Tom DeRosa -- students receive offers to quit the game and must calculate the probability of improving their prize by continuing. In the television show, contestants are shown 26 briefcases and a board showing 26 dollar amounts. As the game progresses, the contestant chooses briefcases -- each of which contains a dollar amount. As each briefcase is chosen, the dollar amount is eliminated from the board. The "bank" then makes an offer -- based on the dollar amounts left on the board -- for the contestant to stop playing. The contestant weighs the odds and decides whether to take the offer or continue playing. Rather than having students play the game one at a time, DeRosa recommends that the class decide as a group, which should inspire conversations about probability.
Sports
Students can try to predict the outcome of upcoming sporting events based on past statistics. In baseball, for example, not only are won-lost records kept, but so are records of how individual players performed in certain ballparks, weather conditions and day versus night; records also can show a player's past performance against certain teams and pitchers. This provides a range of probability factors to explore while keeping things in the context of a game.
Cards
A standard deck of cards allows you to practice basic probability questions. A deck of 52 cards has 26 cards of each color -- 13 of each suit and four of each kind. Students can study the basic probability of a particular card coming up and can also look at traditional card games such as poker and blackjack to determine the probability of either getting a particular hand or -- with advanced knowledge of which cards are left in the deck -- that of a particular card being dealt.
Tags: adjusted increasing, basic probability, calculate probability, deck cards, dollar amount
